Rawalpindi March  2, 2026:
An Analysis
Experts looked at all possibilities before the attack and put them in a simple grid. Most likely four options was calculated
First was a small Attack + Iran Fights Back a Little. US/Israel will only hit nuclear sites (like surgery, not full war). Iran gets angry but doesn’t do much damage. It was expected that quick ceasefire will come into play and oil prices go up a bit.
Second calculation was a Small Attack by Israel/ US on Itan’s nuclear sites. And Iran Fights Back Hard. It was expected that Iran will attack US bases, Israel, and blocks oil ships in the sea. Oil priceswould jump a lot (bad for everyone’s pocket). It wad considered likely option but not remote chances.
Most likely option was Big Attack by US and Iran Fights Back a Little. US/Israel hits everything (nuclear + missiles + navy + leaders). Iran’s government falls but stays calm – maybe army takes over.
The least though option was
Big Attack + Iran Fights Back Hard.
Good for US strategist for miscalculation of priority scenarios.
(This is what’s happening now)
-
- Full attack on everything.
- Iran hits back with lots of missiles, closes oil routes, and uses its friends (like Hezbollah).
- Iran’s leaders are dead, interim government intact, no boh chaos or civil war .
- Oil prices likely to go crazy high (like $100+ per barrel).
- Refugees and more fighting in the Middle East.
Latest Update
Iran continues to strike Israel and US bases in the Gulf, as the number of casualties rises across the region amid intensifying Israeli and US attacks on Iran.
In Iran, the joint US-Israeli attacks have killed at least 555 people, while security chief Ali Larijani has refuted US media claims that he had made a fresh push to resume nuclear talks with Washington.
While speaking  to Al- Jazera television, Hassan Ahmadian, of the University of Tehran, said “ Itan’s targetting neighbouring coutiries in midfle east is not at a rational choice”. However, Iran is actually “focusing – as the official line goes – on US forces, on US bases and basically US interests in the region. And those interests seemingly, as we see in the attacks, include global oil and gas markets,” said Ahmadian.
Iran is “focusing on hurting the United States in the way that can hurt many in the region as well”, he told Al Jazeera. Iran is targeting energy infrastructure in Gulf countries to “ratchet up the pressure to force the United States to rethink its aggression against the country through driving up prices of oil and energy prices globally”, added Ahmadian.
Dr Atique Ur Rehman
(atiquesheikh2000@gmail.com)
